DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/30 11:24
Wheat Higher at Midday
Grain trade is mixed at midday with the downside move slowing.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow down 60. The interest
rate products are higher. The dollar index is 27 higher. Energies are mixed
with crude oil up $.15. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed
with gold down $4.
Corn trade is narrowly mixed at midday with early trade down within a few
pennies of the contract low but we are nearly a nickel off the lows. The
weather forecast remains mostly dry and cool limiting concerns for now, and an
uptick in moisture showing in the extended run. The weekly EIA report showed
ethanol production down 0.52% on the week, with stocks 3.61% higher with light
imports and lower blending helping to build the stocks. Chart support with
remains the recent low at $3.64, with the 10-day moving average at $3.73 first
resistance which we are just below at midday. Moving through the gap at $3.78
will be the key to opening up trade for a bigger move in the near term.
Soybean trade is mixed at midday with August slightly higher and November
active around 5 to 10 lower. Meal is $3 to $4 lower and oil is 15 to 25 points
lower. Weather forecasts continue to be short on near term moisture but lack
heat keeping concerns limited. Sunday into next week has rain in the forecasts;
this has new crop lower yesterday into today. If good moisture is seen during
the first week of August it is very timely for pod fill. On the November chart,
support is the 10-day moving average at $10.84, and resistance is the recent
high of $11.16, with the 20-day moving average at $10.95 in between.
Wheat trade is 4 to 7 cents higher across the three contracts at midday with
export business helping to find light profit taking following the slide
yesterday. Trade remains heavily oversold, but we need a spark to encourage
buying, and the stronger dollar weighing on export values. The USDA did
announce a 205,500 metric ton sale to Nigeria, following a prior sale this
week. On the chart, trade has faded away the 10-day moving averages for Chicago
and Kansas City wheat at $5.31 and $6.25 respectively, with the $5 and $6 areas
acting as support.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
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