DTN Midday Grain Comments 07/23 11:17
Grain Futures Mixed at Midday
Trade is mixed at midday, soybean trade is positive.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
U.S. stock market indices are mixed with the Dow down 10. Interest rate
products are lower. The dollar index is 9 higher. Energies are mixed with crude
oil up $.80. Livestock trade is lower with lean hogs trading limit down.
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $1.
Corn futures are 1 to 3 cents lower at midday in fairly quiet trade. The
weather forecast remains mostly non-threatening despite some dry pockets
developing. Basis has been fairly stable this week and trade is heavily
oversold. Ethanol production was 1.7% higher on the week, with stocks .03%
lower, and gasoline demand down 2.93% with the small stocks draw tied to better
ethanol exports. Margins remain solid. With new lows put in today, December
support will be $3.65, then $3.60. Resistance is at $3.80, the 10-day moving
average, with the gap from Monday nearby resistance. So we have another gap
down with a 1 1/2 cent drop from the $3.78 low on Friday to the $3.76 1/2 high
Soybean futures are 8 to 13 cents higher at midday with trade favoring the
old-crop months early. Meal is $3 to $6 higher and oil is flat to 10 points
higher. Weather remains mostly non-threating for now, but some isolated areas
will need an upturn in moisture soon. This appears to be the main item
supporting trade. On the November chart, support is the contract low of $10.55
which came in overnight, with resistance the 10-day moving average at $10.81.
When trade broke below the old low Tuesday, significant stops were tripped,
helping push trade lower. Soybean trade has been unable to sustain early day
strength recently, so holding the gains for the balance of the session will be
key today for the bull argument.
Wheat futures are narrowly mixed at midday in limited action across the
three contracts. Wheat trade remains heavily oversold, but funds continue to
add to their short position. Concerns over political issues in the Black Sea
area have moved to the back burner. Weather remains mostly a non-issue for
wheat at the moment with only isolated trouble spots around the world. On the
chart, trade put in new lows and will look to hold support at $5.20 on the
September Chicago contract, and $6.20 on the KC September contract.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered trading adviser.
David Fiala can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org
Follow David Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala
Copyright 2014 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.
Your local weather forecast from DTN can be sent to your email every morning free through DTN Snapshot